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POLITICSSep 17Will Taiwan Fight? We Need Better Evidence.Both those making pessimistic predictions and those confidently rejecting them often rely on thin evidence.The Diplomat

CONFLICTSep 17‘Provocation’ could accelerate Taiwan reunification: retired PLA major generalProgress towards reunifying with Taiwan hinges on factors like the island’s level of provocation, retired PLA major general Luo Yuan told the South China Morning Post, warning that Taiwan’s leader had challenged Beijing’s red lines. Speaking on the sidelines of the Xiangshan Forum in Beijing on Wednesday, Luo said the timeline for reunification with mainland China was shaped by “the development of our national strength, our defence needs, the global security environment, as well as the degree of...South China Morning Post

MILITARYSep 16What Do Taiwan’s People Think About Its Annual Military Exercises?Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises are winning public approval, despite the growing impact on civilians. Understanding is another matter.The Diplomat

POLITICSSep 15The Perils of Mind-Reading in the Taiwan StraitWithout sustained dialogue over Taiwan, Beijing and Washington are both vulnerable to dangerous misreadings of each other’s intentions.The Diplomat

POLITICSSep 15How Okinawa’s political shift could make Japan more prepared for a Taiwan contingencyOkinawa’s election on Sunday of a governor backed by Japan’s ruling party ended 12 years of local leadership opposed to the relocation of a US airbase and elements of Tokyo’s defence build-up plans. While experts say that Genta Koja’s victory will not give Tokyo any new military authority in the region, it could lead to closer integration of civilian infrastructure into Japan’s defence network in case of a conflict – including one over Taiwan. Koja’s election would give Tokyo “room to expand its...South China Morning Post

MILITARYSep 15Taiwan tests US-made MQ-9B drones to counter PLA ‘grey-zone’ operationsTaiwan has begun flight testing its newly acquired MQ-9B drones, giving the island a long-range reconnaissance platform capable of monitoring People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and grey-zone activities across vast stretches of surrounding waters. The first two of four MQ-9B SeaGuardians ordered from the United States took off from Hualien Air Base in eastern Taiwan on Monday, according to military sources. It was their first test flight since arriving in Taiwan by sea in June, following nearly three...South China Morning Post

POLITICSSep 14Beijing threatens ‘serious consequences’ after Panama lawmakers support TaiwanChina has warned Panama of “serious consequences” after most of the country’s lawmakers set up a parliamentary exchange group with Taiwan, defying pressure from Beijing’s embassy and a public disavowal by their own president. The warning came from foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun, who said on Monday that the group seriously violated the one-China principle upheld by Panama and urged what he called “those few politicians” to “see the real picture”. Beijing had noted the Panamanian...South China Morning Post