Misreading Myanmar’s War: Why the Junta’s Recent Gains Don’t Mean Imminent Victory

To understand how close Myanmar’s pro-democracy resistance came to victory last year — and how far it has slipped since — there is no sharper microcosm than the story of a Gen Z sniper. In April 2025, a female teenager, Anina, enraptured the world, her youth-driven “Spring Revolution” a vivid foil to the sclerotic forces of military dictator Min Aung Hlaing (officially called the Tatmadaw). When her unit captured the town of Falam, fortune seemed on the resistance’s side. Yet, a year later, regime troops stormed Anina’s hometown, a stunning blow to the