Analyzing the Ethiopian-Somaliland Deal, Two Years On

In 2024, James Barnett wrote, “A Port Deal Puts the Horn of Africa on the Brink,” where he argued that tensions in countries like Ethiopia and Somalia threaten to escalate into a broader regional conflict if not contained. Two years later, with U.S. attention largely diverted to other areas of concern, we asked James to revisit his arguments.Image: Joseph Rullo via DVIDSIn your January 2024 piece, you warned that a memorandum of understanding signed between Ethiopia and Somaliland could actually accelerate al-Shabaab’s expansion into the two countries, pointing to its 2022 in