Our energy sector is off the rails

AS I indicated in my Thursday column (“An imperfect but workable alternative,” Oct. 29, 2026), I have fallen victim to the pestilence that the Department of Health is describing as a “flu-like illness,” which has, unfortunately, severely restricted my activities for a few days and given me a mild case of brain fog. Not that the latter is much of a problem in the real world; brain fog for me is still superior mental capability than about 90 percent of the people I know. But it does compromise my ability to properly assess and explain some complex subjects to some degree, particularly in times like now when the news is flying thick and fast in the energy sector. In the interest of providing useful information and actionable guidance to my audience, I am going to take my time in parsing the various issues that have appeared on the radar in the past day or two. As a teaser, these include: – A couple of ridiculous aspirations that emerged from the Singapore International Energy Week (SIEW) this past week, namely the Department of Energy’s (DOE) assertions that nuclear energy could be deployed in the Philippines by 2032, and that the country can become the “offshore wind powerhouse of Southeast Asia”; – The chaos that has erupted around the DOE’s planned capacity auction for natural gas generation, which was supposed to take place this weekend — a schedule that was highly questionable — but has apparently been put off due to disputes over the ridiculously high proposed floor price; – Disturbing developments involving the planned auction for waste-to-energy generation capacity, which, besides having an indicative price that is probably twice what it ought to be, is allegedly designed to benefit an entity connected to a DOE insider; – The resurfacing of the “China can shut down our transmission grid” shibboleth, promoted by Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro Jr., who, despite being an intelligent, well-educated and experienced official who should be demonstrating his superiority to that corrupt trailer-trash harpy from Davao as a potential national leader, has lately decided to run his mouth along the low road in the country’s relations with China; and – The Philippine Competition Commission’s (PCC) demonstrating once again that its existence only serves as an unnecessary bureaucratic roadblock, with its intercession in a merger/acquisition case involving Meralco Power Generation Corp. (MGEN), in which the PCC did not have an issue with the actual transaction being questioned, but got its feelings hurt because the parties involved did not honor its reporting deadlines. I will deal with all of these at, as they like to say here in the Philippines, “at the appropriate time.” For today, however, I would like to highlight a report that came across my desk earlier in the week from an organization called the We Mean Business Coalition (WMBC), which casts a rather disparaging light on the Philippines’ energy sector. Now, to be fair, this is an organization I am fairly sure no one in this country has heard about until now, and given the Philippines’ culture of having an overweening concern for one’s credentials, it might be easily dismissed. However, I believe it should be taken seriously for a couple of reasons. First of all, any outside analysis of the Philippines’ power sector, provided it is done with an acceptable level of empirical rigor, should be given some consideration. The WMBC’s Electrification Competitiveness Index covers 52 countries, and is designed in the standard way that any of us who took courses in statistics would recognize as mathematically valid. Second, the viewpoint from outside the sphere of the Philippines’ energy environment, given that most of the country’s aspirations will require some external investment at some point, should not be dismissed. To be fair to the local industry, most of the key players already understand this; it is still highly questionable whether or not the DOE itself does. Finally, the index is skewed toward social rather than commercial progress, which I believe is entirely appropriate. Just as reliable access to shelter, water, and food should be considered responsibilities of the state toward its citizens, I believe access to at least basic electricity services is no less important. To be fair to the government, the goal of “100-percent electrification” has been held onto for a long time, but it has proved elusive. That is partly the fault of the government but also an unavoidable challenge due to this country’s geography. Most domestic statistics put the level of electrification in the 94–95 percent range, but that additional 5 or 6 percent has proved to be notoriously difficult to achieve. So, how is the Philippines actually doing so far? The Electrification Competitiveness Index said: “The analysis finds that the Philippines has introduced major electricity market reforms, electric vehicle incentives and building efficiency standards. But delays in expanding electricity networks and connecting new clean power projects, limited charging infrastructure and shortages of skilled workers are holding back progress.” “The Philippines scores 43 percent for enabling conditions and 39 percent for deployment, placing it in the Index’s ‘early-stage adoption’ group alongside Indonesia and South Africa. Electricity market reforms and policies supporting electric transport and building efficiency provide a foundation for further electrification, but infrastructure constraints, uneven implementation and gaps in industrial policy are limiting progress,” it added. My concern right now is that the current leadership of the DOE and the broader economic leadership of the country are too focused on aspirational future goals, such as the oft-repeated “35 percent by 2030 and 50 percent by 2040” renewable-energy targets, and things such as the nuclear and wind power aspirations expressed by our fish-out-of-water energy secretary in recent meetings in Singapore. Just because the Philippines has achieved the statistical marker of being an “upper-middle-income country” and just because it has prospects in the areas of nuclear power, offshore wind, geothermal, and secondary generation (waste-to-energy and biomass) doesn’t mean the country is anywhere near what should be the priority goal of providing reliable electricity to every one of its citizen-households. Once that is accomplished — if it can be accomplished — then the Philippines can truly focus on upgrading the overall system to support further growth. ben.kritz@manilatimes.net Bluesky: @benkritz. bsky.social Website: www.badmannersgunclub.com